Everyone that gives it any thought believes that it is a matter of "when" Senator Chuck Gross resigns not "if". The Gross resignation then sets into motion an interesting set of events.
The first formal step in that process is the Governor has to call a special election. Presumably that would be called to coincide with the April 2007 election. Word on the street is that a number of politicos are concerned about the timing of the election. Although Missouri did buck the national trend with Republicans maintaining control of both houses, the closeness of the Dempsey/Koester race has some concerned that timing the special election with the municipal elections in both St Peters and St Charles might not be a good thing.
Once the election has been called, the respective senatorial district committees will then meet to choose their nominee. The democrats will be faced with a tough decision. Who will be their best candidate that they can use to convince major donors has a shot in a very Republican county? At least three names are usually mentioned; Koester, McCullough, and Green. I suggest that Koester and Green are damaged goods in many ways and wouldn't have even the slightest chance of winning the seat. Some would say that Koester's showing against Dempsey would indicate otherwise but if Koester couldn't take Dempsey out in November with a strong democrat tide, he won't be able to do any better in April.
Joe McCullough would appear to be the most viable candidate for the democrats. He doesn't have a lot of baggage that is known about but he doesn't have a lot of name recognition either. He had an extremely weak opponent in November. This fact reveals the signficant weakness in the local Republican party in recruiting candidates. Their failure to recruit and support strong candidates against McCullough and Hibbeler has resulted in creating a potential democrat farm team that will come back to bite all of us. I think McCullough is the democrat candidate in the special election.
The Republican picture is even more challenging. The two leading contenders are Speaker Pro Tem Carl Bearden and Majority Floor Leader Tom Dempsey (given in alphabetic and leadership position order). There may be other potential candidates but none with the star power of these two gentlemen. Tough decision for the committee.
Both men have risen in position and influence in the Missouri General Assembly. My sources say that they are good friends and have been able to avoid any anomosity in regards to their potential future conflict.
Bearden has more political experience than Dempsey having been elected in the early nineties and with a run for State Treasurer under his belt. He was elected the first chairman of the County Council and established a foundation on which Joe Ortwerth was able to come in and build a new county government upon. He served as House Budget Chairman during some very rough periods of time and did battle with former Governor Bob Holden and won. Bearden is battle tested and proven.
Although Dempsey doesn't have as many years of elected service, he has proven himself as a very good legislator as well. He chaired the Economic Development committee and established a record of getting things done to make the state more competitive. His work as Majority Floor leader places him in a very powerful position and he has handled that with great success. Dempsey weathered a scathing negative campaign that had been waged against him for over a year through the yellow rag in St Charles (no, not the Post Dispatch but not far removed) and unless there is something they held back, he has been somewhat innoculated from those same attacks.
Dempsey is generally considered a more prolific money raiser than Bearden. Campaign finance reports indicate that in their campaign committees Dempsey raised over $200,000 and Bearden over $120,000. However, my sources tell me that Bearden's Speaker committee, a separate committee from the candidate committee, raised over $120,000 making the two comparable in that area. Both men raised or contributed just under $150,000 to the House Republican Campaign Committee in addition to the amounts above. Both men raised significant funds for other committees and it is difficult to accurately determine how much each did. Conventional wisdom would give Dempsey the advantage in fundraising but it doesn't appear to be signficant at this point.
It's anyone's guess how the committee will decide. If you look at the composition of the committee, I think you would have to give Dempsey the advantage. Many on the committee are "old St Charles" types which would seem to favor Dempsey. There are a great number of members of the committee outside of St Charles but there is a bit of a "club" atmosphere present.
Another word on the street is that while they get along, Jon Bennett, Chairman of the Central Committee, doesn't favor Bearden. Some say it has something to do with Bennett's time on the Francis Howell School Board. They say that Bearden's failure to support the tax increase and his alleged association with Mark Lafata form the basis for Bennett's opinion. I must confess that I have a close relative who is a retired teacher who lives in Bearden's district and thinks he is great. She in fact asked him about his relationship with Lafata and was told by Bearden that he and Lafata had known each other for years but he had not taken any sides in the Francis Howell issue between Bennett and Lafata aside from not supporting the tax increase.
Dempsey is more outgoing than Bearden who even John Sonderegger said was "a funny guy in his own right...Bearden is a bit stuffy, you see." Bearden is more of a policy wonk that Dempsey who has great ideas also but by the accounts of their colleagues is less detail oriented.
The scenario is one that will result in the loss of some power for St Charles County. It is highly unlikely that any of the other members of the County delegation will be in leadership anytime soon. Of course, Dempsey and Bearden are both termed out in two years so that void would have been creatd anyway. Hopefully with the speical election a very expensive and personally painful for many having to choose sides primary will be avoided. Unlike one unnamed sore loser elected official, I don't see either Bearden or Dempsey running against the other in a primary if they don't get the nod for the special. The qualities that got them into the positions they currently hold, integrity, character and class will make certain of that.
Regardless of who is eventually selected to run, my prediction is that Republicans will hold the seat and peace and tranquility will once again be the order of the day. It's just a shame they both can't represent us in the Senate.
